OAR 660-032-0040: Interim Forecasts

(1) If a local government outside the Metro boundary initiates a periodic review or other legislative review of its comprehensive plan that concerns an urban growth boundary or a matter authorized by section (2) of this rule before the date the PRC issues a final population forecast for the local government in the first forecasting cycle described in OAR 577-050-0040(7), the local government may continue its review using the population forecast that was acknowledged before the review was initiated, provided the forecast was: (a) Adopted by the local government not more than 10 years before the date of initiation, as a part of the comprehensive plan, consistent with the requirements of ORS 195.034 and 195.036 as those sections were in effect immediately before July 1, 2013, and (b) Acknowledged as provided in ORS 197.251 or 197.625 prior to the effective date of this rule. (2) The authorization to use the forecast described in section (1) applies only to a periodic review or a legislative review of the comprehensive plan that concerns: (a) An urban growth boundary review or amendment as provided in Goal 14 and OAR 660, div 24; (b) Economic development (Goal 9); (c) Housing needs (Goal 10); (d) Public facilities (Goal 11); or (e) Transportation (Goal 12). (3) For purposes of section (1) of this rule, if the acknowledged forecast was adopted by the applicable county, and if the forecast allocates population forecasts to the urban areas in the county but has not been adopted by a particular city in that county, the city may apply the allocated forecast as necessary for the purposes described in section (2) of this rule. (4) If the forecast is consistent with sections (1)(a) and (1)(b) of this rule but does not provide a forecast for the entire applicable planning period for a purpose described in section (2), the local government may apply an extended forecast for such purpose. The extended forecast shall be developed by applying the long term growth trend that was assumed in the acknowledged forecast, for the particular planning area, to the current population of the planning area. (5) If the local government initiates a periodic review or other legislative review that concerns an urban growth boundary or other matter authorized by section (2) of this rule before the issuance by PRC of a final population forecast for the local government, and if that review would be based on a population forecast that was adopted and submitted to the department prior to the effective date of this rule as provided in OAR 660-032-0000 (2), but which is not acknowledged by the effective date of this rule, the local government may continue its review using that forecast provided the forecast is acknowledged prior to the local government’s adoption of any final land use decision or periodic review task resulting from such review. (6) If the local government does not have a forecast that meets the requirements of sections (1)(a) and (1)(b) or section (5) of this rule, the local government may adopt an interim forecast for purposes described in section (2) of this rule. The interim forecast must be based on the average annual (annualized) growth rate for the planning period in the most recent population forecast for the county issued by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), consistent with section (7) of this rule. The local government shall adopt the interim forecast following the procedures and requirements in ORS 197.610 to 197.650 and shall provide notice to all local governments in the county. (7) The interim forecast described in section (6), for a particular planning area, must be developed by applying the annualized growth rate in the most recent OEA forecast, to the current population of the planning area. (8) For purposes of this rule: (a) “Annualized growth rate” means the forecasted average annual (annualized) growth rate determined from the most recent published OEA forecast, calculated from 2015 to the 5-year time interval nearest the end of the planning period. (b) “Apply the annualized growth rate to the current population of the planning area” means to multiply the current population of the planning area by annualized growth rate. (c) “Current population of the planning area” for a county means the estimated population of the county issued by PRC for the year that the review described in section (1) of this rule is initiated. (d) “Current population of the planning area” for an urban area means the PRC estimate of population of the city at the time the review is initiated, plus the population for the area between the urban growth boundary and the city limits as determined by the most recent Decennial Census published by the U.S. Census Bureau.