OAR 660-038-0100: Forecast Employment Growth Based on Population Growth

To forecast 14-year employment growth based on the PSU long term forecast of population growth, a city must: (1) Determine the forecast population of the city’s UGB for the 14-year period from the year in which the UGB analysis was initiated based on the most recent forecast issued by the Portland State University Population Research Center. (2) Determine the current population of the UGB using the most recent population estimate issued by the Portland State University Population Research Center. (3) Determine the rate of population growth for the city over the 14-year period based on sections (1) and (2). (4) Using Table 3, determine the current number of “commercial” and “industrial” jobs in the UGB, based on the definitions in OAR 660-038-0010. (5) To forecast the number of new commercial and new industrial jobs anticipated to occur in the UGB for the 14-year planning period, the city must: (a) Multiply the number of commercial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (4) by the rate of population growth rate determined in section (3), and (b) Multiply the number of industrial jobs currently in the UGB determined in section (4) by the rate of population growth determined in section (3). (6) To account for jobs that are likely to occur on land that is zoned for uses other than commercial or industrial (and which therefore will not require buildable “employment land”), the city must reduce the forecast of new jobs determined in section (5) by 20 percent. (7) The result is the number of new commercial and industrial jobs forecast for the 14-year planning period to be accommodated on employment lands in the UGB. The city must use this result or the result in OAR 660-038-0110 as a basis for determining land needs under OAR 660-038-0140. [ED. NOTE: To view attachments referenced in rule text, click here to view rule.]